Beyond the “50% Rule”: The Real State of Divorce in America (2025 Edition)

For decades, the statistic has been repeated so often it feels like a cultural fact: “50% of all marriages end in divorce.”

While catchy, this number is increasingly outdated and misleading. The reality of marriage and divorce in the United States is far more nuanced. In 2024 and 2025, we are seeing a complex landscape where divorce rates are plummeting for some groups while skyrocketing for others.

Below is a deeply researched breakdown of the current divorce statistics in the United States, stripped of myths and backed by the latest data from the CDC, the U.S. Census Bureau, and leading sociological institutes.

1. The “Big Number”: Is it Still 50%?

The Short Answer: No. It is likely lower.

The “50%” figure was a projection made in the 1970s and 80s when divorce rates peaked. Since then, the overall divorce rate in America has been in steady decline.

  • Crude Divorce Rate: As of the latest provisional data, the rate sits at approximately 2.4 to 2.5 divorces per 1,000 population. This is a significant drop from the peak of 5.3 per 1,000 in 1981 [1].
  • Refined Divorce Rate: A more accurate measure (looking only at married women), the rate is approximately 14.2 divorces per 1,000 married women [2].
  • First Marriage Success: For couples marrying today, the risk of divorce is estimated to be between 35% and 45%, not 50% [3].

2. The “Remarriage Gap”: 1st vs. 2nd vs. 3rd Marriages

One of the most consistent findings in sociological data is that the probability of divorce increases with each subsequent marriage. While first marriages are becoming more stable, remarriages face higher volatility.

  • First Marriages: ~41% end in divorce.
  • Second Marriages: ~60% end in divorce.
  • Third Marriages: ~73% end in divorce [4].

Why the increase? Researchers suggest “blended family” dynamics (stepchildren, ex-spouses) and financial strain contribute to the stress. Additionally, individuals who have divorced once may be less willing to stay in an unhappy relationship a second time.

3. The “Gray Divorce” Revolution

While divorce is dropping for younger generations (Millennials and Gen Z), it is rising for Baby Boomers. This phenomenon is known as the “Gray Divorce.”

  • The Split: For adults ages 25–39, the divorce rate has dropped significantly.
  • The Surge: For adults over age 50, the divorce rate has doubled since 1990. For those over 65, it has tripled [5].
  • The Driver: Increased life expectancy and the stigma of divorce fading for older generations allow unhappy couples to split after children leave the nest.

4. The Education Gap (The “Diploma Divide”)

Education is currently the single strongest predictor of marital stability in the United States. There is a widening gap between college-educated Americans and those with a high school diploma or less.

  • Bachelor’s Degree or Higher: Divorce rate is approximately 26%.
  • High School Diploma or Less: Divorce rate climbs to over 39-45% [6].

College-educated couples tend to marry later, have greater financial stability, and are older when they have their first child—all factors that statistically lower divorce risk.

5. Same-Sex Marriage and Divorce

Since the legalization of same-sex marriage nationwide in 2015, data has begun to emerge regarding dissolution rates.

  • Overall Rate: The divorce rate for same-sex couples is roughly 1.1% to 1.6% annually, which is comparable to or slightly lower than the rate for opposite-sex couples (~2%) [7].
  • The Gender Split: Data consistently shows that lesbian couples are more likely to divorce than gay male couples. In some datasets, female same-sex couples dissolve their marriages at nearly twice the rate of male same-sex couples [8].

6. Demographic Breakdowns (Race & Ethnicity)

Marriage and divorce patterns vary significantly across racial and ethnic lines in the US.

  • Asian Americans: Lowest divorce rate (~11-14% of first marriages).
  • Hispanic/Latino: ~27-30%.
  • White: ~36%.
  • Black Americans: Highest divorce rate (~41-45% of first marriages) [5][9].

7. Duration: The “7-Year Itch” is Real

Is the “seven-year itch” a myth? Statistically, it is surprisingly accurate.

  • Average Duration: The average length of a marriage that ends in divorce in the US is roughly 8 years [10].
  • The Danger Zone: The highest risk of divorce occurs within the first 10 years. If a couple makes it past the 10-year mark, their statistical likelihood of divorce drops significantly.

References & Sources

  1. CDC/NCHS: National Vital Statistics System, “Provisional number of marriages and marriage rate, divorces and divorce rate,” 2000-2023.
  2. Bowling Green State University (NCFMR): National Center for Family & Marriage Research, “Refined Divorce Rate in the U.S.: Geographic Variation, 2023/2024.”
  3. US Census Bureau: American Community Survey (ACS) Data, “Marital Events of Americans: 2022.”
  4. Psychology Today / Forest Institute of Professional Psychology: Compilation of marriage longevity statistics.
  5. Pew Research Center: “Steep rise in divorce for older adults (Gray Divorce),” led by researcher Renee Stepler.
  6. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): “Marriage and divorce: patterns by gender, race, and educational attainment.”
  7. The Williams Institute (UCLA School of Law): “Patterns of Relationship Recognition for Same-Sex Couples: Divorce and Terminations.”
  8. Office for National Statistics (UK) & Williams Institute: Comparative analysis showing higher dissolution rates among female-female couples vs. male-male couples.
  9. National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG): CDC data on probability of first marriage disruption by race/ethnicity.
  10. US Census Bureau: Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), “Median Duration of Marriages.”